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Turkey: Levantine Tiger or Angry Man of Europe?

May 24 -- Turkey continues to lose ground in its efforts to block Cyprus from joining the European Union. With European officials expressing optimism that Cyprus will join by 2004, the stage is set for a crisis that could force a resolution to the quarter-century-old conflict -- or, in a more pessimistic scenario, trigger a rupture of relations between Turkey and the European Union and an end to Turkey's own membership bid.

No other nation besides Turkey recognizes the breakaway republic that was established forcibly on Cyprus by occupying troops in 1974. Turkey is calling for a confederation of two separate states; the Greek side fiercely opposes any legitimization of the northern entity. EU membership for Cyprus may seriously weaken Turkish bargaining power. Should accession take place, Turks could find themselves in the awkward diplomatic and legal position of militarily occupying part of the EU.

Globalization-Era Cyprus Envisaged

The longer it holds out, the more Turkey risks becoming cast as an obstacle to globalization and prosperity. In a speech this month, British High Commissioner Roger Clay outlined a Lexus-era future for Cyprus in which the island nation would become a "regional hub" joining Southeastern Europe with the Middle East, and supporting the region's two "Levantine Tigers" -- Greece and Turkey. There is one small hitch, however: a third of the prospective "regional hub" is occupied by Turkish troops, propping up an impoverished republic ruled by octogenarian Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash. Poverty and envy of the prosperous south are already probably doing more to undo Denktash's breakaway republic than 27 years of Greek Cypriot protests and diplomatic initiatives. EU membership, Turks fear and Greeks hope, may be the final nail in the coffin.

At a 1999 summit in Helsinki, the EU decided that resolution of the Cyprus dispute is not a precondition for membership. Cyprus now tops the list of prospective EU members, ahead of former Iron Curtain nations Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. And Greece, which is celebrating two decades of membership in the Union, holds veto power over the process, allowing it to block other candidacies should the Cyprus bid be rejected.

Human Rights Court: Turkey Committed "Inhumane Acts"

Further exacerbating Turkey's woes, the European Court of Human Rights ruled this month that Turkey committed inhumane acts when its troops occupied northern Cyprus in 1974. Specifically, the Court said that Turkey had failed to account for the disappearance of 1,500 Greek Cypriots, inhumanely treated the families of missing persons, failed to provide compensation for loss of property, and interfered with freedom of religion. However, in a show of balance, on May 23rd the Court found Greek Cypriot police guilty of human rights violations against nine Turkish Cypriots who stayed in the south following the invasion.

With Turkish media -- and even figures within the government and opposition parties -- acknowledging that Cyprus will almost certainly join the EU, leverage is quickly evaporating for the Turkish side. Turkey, whose economic and human rights problems are posing a threat to its own EU candidacy, is finding its occupation of Cyprus a financial drain as well as a diplomatic millstone. Following a meltdown in February, Turkey is barely clinging to a modicum of stability, and hopes for recovery are pinned on reform-minded Economy minister Bulent Dervis. Dervis needs continued foreign assistance in order to bring Turkey out of its morass. But the volatility of the situation makes outcomes hard to predict. Turkey could decide that it has been shut out of Europe, resign itself to being the region's "angry man," and adopt a policy of stubborn retrenchment.

Hero, Killer in Lambrakis Case Die on Same Day

The culprit in a political murder that shook Greece during
the early sixties died on May 2nd, a few hours after the death of the man who arrested him. Emmanuel Emmanuelides, convicted in the 1963 assassination of athlete, professor and left-wing deputy Grigoris Lambrakis, died of a heart attack in a Thessaloniki hospital. Earlier the same day, Emmanel Hatziapostolou, nicknamed "Tiger," died of cancer, also in Thessaloniki. Hatziapostolou, a construction worker, chased down and captured Lambrakis' killers as they fled the scene, pulling them from the motorized three-wheeler they had used to run down the deputy.

Lambrakis, a track and field star who won medals at the Balkan Games, had defied the government by using his parliamentary immunity to march in a rally shut down by the police.  Death threats failed to prevent him from appearing at a second rally. The assassins hit Lambrakis with the three-wheeler, then struck him on the head with a truncheon. His funeral -- in which half a million people marched, shouting "Lambrakis lives!" -- turned into Greece's largest postwar demonstration, triggering a general strike and bringing Athens to a standstill. It was widely believed that Lambrakis' assassins had ties to high-ranking police, army, and government officials, and the scandal contributed to the defeat of then Premier Karamanlis' center-right government. Karamanlis left for Paris and did not return to Greece until 1974.

Emmanuelides and his accomplice, Spyros Godzamanis, were sentenced to prison terms, but released by the military junta that seized power in 1967.

The assassination and its aftermath were depicted in Costas Gavras' movie "Z," which featured a music score written by Mikis Theodorakis, who had been a prominent figure in the peace movement and had marched with Lambrakis prior to the killing.

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